15 Trade Targets for the St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals currently sit 6.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead, but do hold the 2nd Wild Card slot by ½ a game. The Cardinals’ starting pitchers rank 2nd in the Majors in ERA, yet the club will likely be in the market for a starter, after 3 starters have gone down with injuries. Joe Kelly has missed more time than expected with a hamstring injury, but just began his rehab assignment. Both Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia have gone down with shoulder injuries and the club is not sure how long both will be on the DL. The real question for the Cardinals is whether they will go for an ace-like starter (i.e. David Price) or a cheaper rental/middle rotation arm (i.e. Jason Hammel). Despite their interest in pitching, the Cardinals are more in need of offensive help, especially at 2nd base. Their targets will consist of 3rd basemen, who could move Carpenter back to 2nd base, and 2nd basemen.

Starting Pitchers:

Jason Hammel – RHP, Chicago Cubs:

Hammel is in the midst of a very productive season for the Cubs, but is still a near lock to be traded, as the Cubs struggle through another poor season. The righty has a 2.98 ERA, which is supported by his 3.11 FIP and an 18.8 K-BB%. Hammel is a Free Agent after this season, so he is just a rental player, which should limit the price for the Cardinals to acquire him. The Cards will likely have to give up a prospect or two that rank between 10 and 20 in their system.

Ian Kennedy – RHP, San Diego Padres:

Kennedy has posted a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA with the Padres this season, but he has a career high K/9 of 9.67 and a FIP of 2.92. Because Kennedy has another year of team control, he may cost a little more in terms of talent for the Cardinals to acquire him. Kennedy should command a Top 10 prospect from the Cardinals’ system, but no one that is in the top 5.

Justin Masterson – RHP, Cleveland Indians:

The 29-year-old righty has struggled to a 5.03 ERA through his first 17 starts, so even if the Indians are in contention they may be willing to move him because he is a Free Agent following the season. Despite his high ERA, the Cardinals may take this opportunity to buy-low on a guy with 3.90 FIP and a high GB%. If Masterson begins pitching better, he may require a prospect between Top 10 and Top 15.

Brandon McCarthy – RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks:

McCarthy is almost a lock to be traded, as he is being paid over $9 Million this season and the Diamondbacks are struggling through a very disappointing season. His 5.11 ERA is not truly indicative of his skill level, as he has a 55.6 GB% and a 20.3 HR/FB%, which is unsustainable. His xFIP, which normalizes his HR/FB rate, is 2.92. McCarthy is another buy-low candidate for a Cardinals team that should be more focused on offensive upgrades rather than starting pitchers. McCarthy will likely command a prospect between the Cardinals’ Top 15 and 20.

David Price – LHP, Tampa Bay Rays:

Easily the best player on the market and would be the ace of most teams in the league. The Rays hold all the leverage, as they can wait until the off-season to deal him because he has another season of team control, so he is not a rental player. Nevertheless, the Rays are eager to trade him now, as they battle through a disappointing season. Price already has a Cy Young award under his belt and is in the midst of arguably his best season. He has a career-high K/9 of 10.45 and a career-low BB/9 of 1.02. Price also has a xFIP of 2.54, which is much better than his 3.63 ERA. Price will likely command a package of 3-4 quality players with at least 1 elite prospect (Oscar Taveras) or 2 plus-plus talents (Carlos Martinez, Matt Adams, Shelby Miller, Stephen Piscotty, or Marco Gonzalez). If the Cardinals do acquire Price, they will likely sign him long-term for somewhere around $25 Million dollars per year for 6 or 7 years.

Jeff Samardzija – RHP, Chicago Cubs:

Samardzija is a solid #2/3 starter for most clubs and has really come into his own this season. The 29-year-old righty has a 2.83 ERA and a 3.06 FIP through his first 17 starts. He should not be as expensive as Price because he is not a true ace, but he is also controllable beyond this season. This move is a little less likely than the above trades because the Cubs are within the Cardinals’ division and both teams may be reluctant to make a move of such magnitude with another team in their division.

Relief Pitchers:

Jason Frasor – RHP, Texas Rangers:

Frasor has been outstanding as the Rangers’ primary setup man and could serve in a similar role for the Cardinals. He has compiled a 2.13 ERA through his first 25 1/3 innings out of the pen. Since he is a Free Agent following the season and the Rangers are open to dealing, he should not be too expensive for the Cardinals to acquire, maybe a Top 10-15 prospect.

Joakim Soria – RHP, Texas Rangers:

Soria has served as the Rangers closer this season and dominated to the tune of a 0.85 FIP and 15 saves. He would likely serve as the Cardinals primary 8th inning man if acquired, but may be too expensive for the Cardinals’ needs, as they will not want to pay the price for a closer. They should still consider the righty because he is easily the best reliever available on the market. However, since the Cardinals’ system is so strong, he may command one of their Top 10 prospects.

Dale Thayer – RHP, San Diego Padres:

The Padres are in the midst of Front Office turnover, so it is unclear who is available, but Thayer will likely be available as he is 33 years old and enjoying a career best season. Even though Thayer is controllable beyond this season, he should be made available because the Padres will not be competitive for a few years, as they undergo a rebuild. His 1.85 ERA is a career best, but not supported by his peripherals as he has a 3.72 FIP. This difference between FIP and ERA should drop his price enough for the Cardinals to be interested.

Brad Ziegler – RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ziegler is signed through 2015 with a club option for 2016, so he is not a lock to be traded, but with the Diamondbacks struggling through another disappointing season, they should look to deal him while his value is high. Ziegler is in the midst of his fourth straight season with an ERA below 2.50. The 34-year-old is a great fit for the Cardinals as he has consistently had a GB% around 70% and despite his submarine delivery, Ziegler has no apparent splits between lefties and righties. The righty’s price may be higher than Soria’s because he is controllable beyond this season, so he should bring a Top 10 prospect to the Diamondbacks.

Position Players:

Gordon Beckham – 2nd Baseman, Chicago White Sox:

Beckham is controllable beyond this season, but the White Sox will still look to trade him in the right deal if they continue to fall out of contention. Beckham has yet to duplicate his impressive rookie campaign, which is the only season he has been above average offensively in terms of wRC+. Nevertheless, his 99 wRC+ this season would be a huge improvement for the Cardinals who have received just a 55 wRC+ from their 2nd basemen. Beckham may cost the Cardinals one of their lesser Top 10 prospects because he is controllable.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Shortstop, Cleveland Indians:

The Cardinals have been connected to Cabrera for a few years now, and even though they now have a reliable shortstop, Cabrera could still be a good fit. He could slot in at 2nd, 3rd or short and see Peralta slide to 3rd and Carpenter return to 2nd base. Cabrera has been inconsistent over the last few years, but has been above average offensively this season and would be a substantial upgrade for the Cardinals’ infield. The Indians are still contending for a playoff spot, but if they fall out of contention, they will likely look to trade Cabrera, who will be a Free Agent following the season. I’d expect Cabrera to require the Cardinals to part with a prospect ranked between 8 and 15 in their system.

Martin Prado – 3rd Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks:

Prado has served as the Diamondbacks’ 3rd baseman, but has experience in the outfield and at 2nd base. He is signed through 2016 at about $10 Million per year, but the Diamondbacks are looking to sell and have said they are open to dealing Prado. The 30-year-old is struggling through his worst offensive season in some time, but he would still be an offensive upgrade for the Cardinals. Also, if the Diamondbacks cover some of his remaining salary, the Cardinals will not need to worry too much about the years left on his deal. An acquisition of Prado would likely block Wong from 2nd base, so any deal could center on him with a lesser prospect.

Chase Utley – 2nd baseman, Philadelphia Phillies:

I included Utley merely because the Cardinals are searching for 2nd base help, but Utley insists he will not waive his no-trade clause. If he changes his stance, the Cardinals will be among the teams calling.

Ben Zobrist – 2nd Baseman, Tampa Bay Rays:

Zobrist is the definition of a super-utility player, as he can player anywhere on field and do it well. The 33-year-old is also a plus hitter, even in a down season like this year. Zobrist has a very inexpensive club option for next season at just $7.5 Million. The Rays may not want to trade Zobrist because they expect to be competitive next season, but they will be willing to move him in the right deal and the Cardinals have the pieces to convince them. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently speculated that the Cardinals could try to land both Price and Zobrist by trading Oscar Taveras and a few lesser prospects or players. Personally, I do not think the Rays would accept such a deal, as they will want more than just one top prospect. I do think the Cardinals could realistically trade for both Price and Zobrist, but it will not be cheap, as the Rays covet both players.

Anthony Cacchione

What is Wrong with Trevor Rosenthal?

This title is slightly misleading, and may be best put as “What is Not Quite Right with Trevor Rosenthal?”  His ERA is below 4.00 and his FIP is much better than his ERA, thanks in large part to his high strikeout rate and low home run rate. Yet, Rosenthal is not dominating in the same way that he did last year when he struck out 108 batters in 75 1/3 innings and compiled a miniscule 1.91 FIP. So, what is different about Rosenthal that has led to a 1.36 increase in ERA and .83 spike in FIP? As I said, Rosenthal is in the midst of a very respectable season, by many metrics, but he is not supposed to be “just” respectable. Rosenthal should be able to dominate the league, just as he did last year when he ranked 5th among relievers in FIP and WAR. Naturally, I turned to the numbers to determine what is holding Rosenthal back from being one of the best closer’s in the league.

With such a significant jump in his ERA, I expected to see that Rosenthal was being hit much harder, but that is not what I found. Not only is his opponents’ SLG% down, but so is his opponents’ AVG. So, Rosenthal is allowing fewer hits compared to last year and also fewer extra base hits, which certainly seems like a great formula for success. However, based on the type of contact Rosenthal is letting up this year, I would expect to see the opposite trend. For the second straight season, Rosenthal’s GB% has decreased, and this year, his Line Drive % (LD%) ballooned 10% up to 29.6%. Despite allowing more hard contact, Rosenthal has decreased his BABIP, which suggests he has actually been lucky to this point in the season. Rosenthal has also done a nice job limiting home runs, even while allowing more balls to be put in the air. His GB/FB ratio has dropped all the way to .85 from 1.23 just a year ago. Fortunately, he has still managed to drop his HR/9 to .29 thanks to a miniscule HR/FB ratio of .037.

In an attempt to understand why he was letting up more solid contact, I looked at his fastball velocity, but it was right where it was last year. Rosenthal has not lost any velocity from where he was last year, which means it his stuff is not to blame for his increased FB and LD rates this year. Yet, even with his upper-90s heat, Rosenthal has struggled to get ahead in the count. He has thrown the first pitch of the at-bat for a strike just 57.1% of the time this year, which is a 6% drop from last season. Anytime you fall behind a hitter, you give them a much better chance to make solid contact, even when you can touch triple digits. As a pitcher with as much stuff as he has, Rosenthal must be aggressive and work ahead in the count in order to maximize his lights out repertoire.

More concerning than the fact that he is falling behind more hitters than last year, is where Rosenthal is missing. Of all the pitches Rosenthal has thrown outside the strike zone, 44% have missed up above the zone, compared to just 28% below the zone. This is compared to last year when he missed above the zone just 34.3% of the time and below the zone with 35.4% of his pitches outside the zone. While this may not seem significant since these balls are outside the zone, so they are unlikely to be hit, it is always concerning to see a pitcher consistently throwing up in the zone. Rosenthal’s propensity to miss with pitches up has certainly contributed to his increased LD% and FB%, as it is easier to elevate a pitch that is already up. This could be a strategy for Rosenthal, as it is harder to catch up to fastballs up in the zone, but it has yet to materialize into positive results, as his performance is worse than in 2013. Also, based off the times I have seen him throw, this does not seem to be a strategy, as he has also missed up in the zone with his changeup, which is never intended by any pitcher. Despite some issues keeping it down in the zone, Rosenthal’s changeup has been his best pitch by far this season. This is particularly surprising for a pitcher that throws as hard as he does, but his changeup has compiled an astounding 5.71 runs above average per every 100 pitches, which has likely contributed to his increased use of the pitch (up to 14.6% from 6% in 2013). On a more concerning note though, his fastball is registering a career low .21 runs above average per every 100 pitches, down .77 runs from last year. It isn’t surprising the fastball is not worth as much as the changeup on average because the changeup is often used in higher leverage situations and also with less frequency. However, with Rosenthal’s struggles to get ahead in the count, it is not shocking that his fastball is less effective this year.

While Rosenthal has allowed harder contact this year, it has yet to materialize into better statistics for his opponents, in terms of batting average and slugging percentage. Where Rosenthal has been hurt this season is with his walks, which is among the few things he can fully control. He has already walked 17 batters this season, after walking just 20 all of last season in 45 more innings. Rosenthal’s BB/9 has actually more than doubled from it 2.39 mark in 2013, as it sits at 4.99 thus far in 2014. As a result of his lost control, Rosenthal’s opponent’s OBP has shot up from .289 last year to .321 this season, despite a lower opponent’s batting average. Rosenthal also tends to lose his control at the wrong times, as he has walked 10 of his 17 batters in high leverage situations, while pitching just 2/3 of an inning more in those situations than low and medium leverage situations. Even more concerning, he has walked 11 batters with men on base, leading to an opponent’s OBP of .409 with men already on base. Rosenthal’s struggles from the stretch seem to be related to his rushing to the plate. Based purely on the times I have seen him throw, he has a propensity to rush to the plate when pitching from the stretch, which does not give his throwing arm time to get up into position. This tendency for his arm to lag leaves him susceptible to throw the ball up, which is where most of his pitches are missing. With his struggles from the stretch, it is no wonder Rosenthal’s Left on Base% has dropped 5.3% from last season.

This is not an article to criticize Rosenthal and call for his removal from the closer’s role, but rather to point out where Rosenthal needs to improve. His ERA is certainly high for a closer, but because he is not allowing many hits, he can easily improve his season by being more aggressive in the strike zone. A pitcher with as much stuff as Rosenthal should not be afraid to pitch within the zone. Working ahead in the count will also work to prevent the solid contact that has increased this year. Rosenthal shows the importance of throwing strikes, as he has gone from one of the premier late-inning arms in the game to a pitcher with the 114th best ERA of qualified relievers. Even in terms of FIP, Rosenthal ranks 51st among qualified relievers. While these are certainly discouraging trends, if he can return to throwing strikes the way he did in his previous two opportunities in the Majors, he will be able to reverse these trends.

Anthony Cacchione

What has happened to the Red Sox?

In 2013, the Boston Red Sox rebounded from a disastrous 2012 season to become the best team in all of baseball. Yet, in 2014, they have looked much more like the 2012 Red Sox than the 2013 Red Sox. Last year, many pundits praised their offseason strategy to acquire multiple mid-tier Free Agents, instead of signing one expensive star player. While this was certainly an effective strategy, the Red Sox received career years from many new players and many of those performances have not carried over to 2014. They began the 2014 season with a very similar roster, just missing Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Stephen Drew. The Red Sox let all three of these players walk via Free Agency because they believed they had capable replacements within the organization. However, the Red Sox have yet to find a capable leadoff hitter and still have a huge hole at both 3rd base and in the outfield.

The 2013 team was carried by the fact that multiple players experienced career years. To this point in 2014, most of those players have not enjoyed the same level of success. The loss of Ellsbury has certainly hurt their outfield, but the poor performances of Shane Victorino, Mike Carp and Daniel Nava have been the real issues for the Red Sox. While Victorino did not set any career highs in 2013, he did hit better than his career triple-slash line in every category with a  .294/.351/.451 line and accumulated a 5.6 WAR. So far this season, Victorino has battled hamstring issues, but in his limited opportunities (21 gms) he has a OBP of just .275 and 67 wRC+. Carp was able to set career highs in both his SLG% and WAR during 2013, but has been unable to sustain his newfound power, as his SLG has dropped .237 pts. Maybe the biggest surprise of 2013 was Daniel Nava, who put up career highs with a slash-line of .303/.385/.445 and a WAR of 1.8. However, Nava has struggled to replicate his career-year, as he has slashed just .134/.224/.232 and accumulated a minus-0.6 WAR, while going back and forth between Triple-A and the MLB. This lack of production from some of their top outfielders in 2013 has contributed to a glaring hole in their outfield. After ranking as the best outfield in 2013, the Red Sox have the worst outfield thus far in 2014.

Beyond just these outfielders struggling to replicate their 2013 performances, the Red Sox also lost three key contributors to Free Agency. The Red Sox were unwilling to match the Yankees’ offer of 7-years, $153 Million to Jacoby Ellsbury. It is certainly understandable why they would not match such an offer for the oft-injured Ellsbury, but they did lose their best player from 2013, in terms of WAR. While Ellsbury was off to a slow start, he has been hot of late and has still managed a WAR greater than the entire Red Sox outfield combined. In the long run it may have been a good decision not to match the Yankees’ offer, but that does not change the fact that the Red Sox are greatly missing his production. The Red Sox also chose not to re-sign shortstop Stephen Drew during the offseason, although realizing they would not recuperate a draft pick if he signed after the draft, they recently re-signed him. While his replacement at shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, has been phenomenal, Bogaerts’ replacement at 3rd base has not been as effective. This has left a substantial hole on the left side of their infield, both in terms of defense and offense. As I said, the Red Sox did recently sign Drew; however, in his first 3 games he is still looking for his timing at the plate. They also let Jarrod Saltalamacchia sign with the Miami Marlins, and the Red Sox instead chose to sign AJ Pierzynski, who has not been quite as productive, but even more worrisome he has caused some issues in the clubhouse.

The problem is not that the Red Sox let these players leave, as they were all defensible decisions, but the real problem is the way that the Red Sox tried to replace their production. In Centerfield, the Red Sox signed Grady Sizemore to compete with Jackie Bradley Jr. for the starting job. They essentially chose to replace one of the best Centerfielders with two unknowns, as Sizemore had not played in the Majors since 2011 and Bradley Jr. struggled in his first big league action last year. So far this year the pair has combined for a WAR of minus-0.2, as each has struggled mightily at the plate. Their struggles combined with the regression by the rest of the outfielders have contributed to the Red Sox having the worst outfield in the Majors. The Red Sox also failed to adequately replace Stephen Drew, although the issue has not been with their new shortstop. When they let Drew walk, they chose to move 3rd baseman Xander Bogaerts to his natural position of shortstop and put Will Middlebrooks at 3rd base, in the hopes that he would return to his 2012 form (.288/.325/.509). However, Middlebrooks has failed to be a productive option at the 3rd base, as he has just a 74 wRC+ and has a batting average under .200 with little power. While they have brought Drew back, it will take time for him to get his timing back, so the problem is not necessarily solved.

Bringing Drew back was a step in the right direction, as they realized his replacement was not getting the job done; however, they still must improve in the outfield. While they may wait for Victorino to return from his hamstring injury, even if he returns to form, they will be left with just one above-average outfielder. This post has been directed towards the team’s offensive struggles, which is understandable since their team wRC+ is just 92 (100 wRC+ is average). Nevertheless, the Red Sox will need to get more from Clay Buchholz upon his return from his knee injury. Buchholz was one of the best starters in the Majors in 2013, when he was healthy, as he posted a 1.78 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. However, in 50 innings this season, his ERA has ballooned to 7.02 with a much higher walk rate. The Red Sox great off-season strategy prior to the 2013 season had a huge impact on their success, and likewise, their poor off-season strategy before this season has had a substantial effect on their struggles thus far. A 10 game deficit at this point in the season is not insurmountable, but they will need to realize that they are not going to get similar production from many of their key contributors of just a year ago.

They are going to need to acquire more offensive talent to bolster their lineup and the easiest position to add to is the outfield. The Dodgers have a logjam in the outfield and would likely be willing to move one of their outfielders to Boston at the right price, but right now neither Matt Kemp nor Andre Eithier is having a strong campaign. The Red Sox would likely not be willing to pay the price the Dodgers would demand, but there are likely to be plenty of other outfielders available. Another contender with surplus outfielders is the St. Louis Cardinals, who could trade Allen Craig, Jon Jay, or Peter Bourjos. If the Padres fall further out of contention, the Red Sox would have the prospects to acquire any of their outfielders: Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin or Seth Smith. Smith would likely be the main target as he is playing the best and is not under contract beyond this year, so he should not cost as much as Cameron Maybin. Another target, if the Phillies decide to undergo a fire sale, could be Marlon Byrd, who is under contract through the 2015 season. If the White Sox, fall behind in the standings, they could look to trade Dayan Viciedo or Alejandro De Aza. Another potential trade target is Michael Cuddyer, if the Rockies decide to sell. Cuddyer is in the final year of a 3-year deal and is in the midst of his second strong season in a row.

Anthony Cacchione