Significant Off-Season Ahead for Reds

The Cincinnati Reds just completed a disastrous season, in which they fell from just 1.5 games back at the All-Star Break to 14 games back by the end of the season. They have experienced more than their fair share of injuries, but even without all the injuries, this probably is not a playoff team. The Reds’ offense has multiple holes it will need to fill in order to contend in the competitive NL Central. Defensively, the Reds excelled, ranking as the best defensive team in terms of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Offensively, however, they were among the worst teams in baseball, ranking 30th in wRC+. That means when removing context from events, the Reds were the worst offensive team this season. Even when considering all the injuries they suffered, this is not a good offensive team. They also have a pitching staff that ranks 27th in baseball in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), meaning their pitchers are near the bottom of the league in what they can control. Recently extended General Manager, Walt Jocketty, will need a very effective off-season to return the Reds to contention, but he’ll need to do it without much financial flexibility.

In 2013, the Reds’ posted a wRC+ of 97, which was slightly below average, but still 13 points higher than the figure they posted in 2014. It is easy to attribute most of this difference to the injuries suffered by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, however, neither of them were having particularly strong seasons offensively. Votto slashed .255/.390/.409 (avg/obp/slg), which is partly due to his injuries, but even prior to his first DL stint, Votto’s numbers were down. While I certainly expect Votto to return to his prototypical form in 2015, there are no guarantees that his knee injuries will be behind him, as he also had knee issues in 2011. Brandon Phillips on the other hand has provided little offensive value for the last two seasons. While his defense is still among the best at 2nd base, Phillips’s offense has been declining for a few years and I do not believe his struggles are due to his thumb injury. His OBP and SLG% have declined in each of the last 3 seasons. The Reds also have significant offensive holes in Leftfield, Centerfield and Shortstop. Leftfield will be their biggest area of need this offseason, as they ranked 29th in WAR from their Leftfielders. Billy Hamilton will again be their centerfielder in 2015, but he will need to make substantial improvements on offense, where he often looked overmatched. Their shortstop position seems to be set, as well, with Zach Cozart providing enough defensive value to overcome his shortcomings on offense. Cozart posted the worst wRC+ of any qualified hitter this season, but rated as one of the best defenders in the game, so he will likely remain entrenched at short for the Reds. Their offense has three glaring holes, and that is assuming that Jay Bruce returns to his normal form, after an abysmal 2014. They will likely be able to find an upgrade in Leftfield, but will likely receive little offensive production from the Centerfield and Shortstop positions.

The Reds experienced some more injuries on the pitching side, as Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman all landed on the DL. However, even with each pitcher healthy, their staff is not all that imposing. They ranked 16th in ERA, but 27th in FIP, which is more evidence as to how good their defense is, but also a result of a good amount of luck. The pitching staff ranked 26th in BB/9, but also posted the 3rd lowest BABIP, which will be difficult to repeat, even with their strong defense. If they are going to improve their offense this off-season, it will likely happen by trading away one of the starters, which will further weaken their rotation. While their rotation is considered one of their strengths, it is not deep enough to sustain trading away one of its top members. Assuming everyone is healthy they have 5 quality starters that appear ready for the rotation in 2015, with Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, and Alfredo Simon under control for next year. However, Bailey just had surgery on his forearm and this is Simon’s first season as a starter and he has far outperformed his peripherals. If one of these starters is dealt, the Reds do not have many internal candidates to fill the void. Tony Cingrani struggled in his sophomore season, David Holmberg has been hit hard in his debut season and top prospect Robert Stephenson struggled mightily in Double-A this season. There is plenty of uncertainty in their rotation and their bullpen was a complete disaster this season, ranking 24th in ERA and FIP.

Unfortunately, the Reds do not have much financial flexibility in order to add top talent through Free Agency. Their 2014 payroll of $112 Million was the highest in franchise highest and does not appear to be a very sustainable figure, considering their payroll increased by $25 Million from 2012 to 2013. Their payroll for 2015 will likely be in a similar range to this past year, which does not leave them much room for outside personnel. They already have $71 Million committed to their 2015 roster, and that covers only 10 players. This leaves them with around $45 Million left to sign their arbitration eligible players, as well as their $10 Million club option on Johnny Cueto. With at least $20 Million going to arbitration eligible players, the Reds will only have around $15 million to allocate to free agents. With such little flexibility, the Reds are certainly out of the running for the top free agents, which means they will likely fill smaller holes through free agency and trade one of their starters to improve one of the more significant weaknesses, such as Leftfield. While the Reds would love to trade Brandon Phillips and his remaining $39 Million over the next 3 years, not many teams will be interested, unless the Reds eat a chunk of his salary. The most likely player to be dealt is Johnny Cueto, as his value has reached it peak, following a Cy Young-type season. If Cueto is the starter to go, the Reds will need someone like Latos to step up as the Ace, but Cueto will bring back a significant haul.

While the Reds can argue that they would have been able to compete without so many injuries, injuries happen to every team, and this team was not all that good even with a healthy roster. They have far too many holes on offense and a pitching staff that far outperformed their peripherals. With such little financial flexibility, the Reds will need to find improvements from within their organization that can add around 15 wins. Otherwise, the Reds will need to trade one of their top starters in order to bring in an offensive upgrade at an affordable price. With so much money allocated to such few players, the Reds need to improve this roster, while those players are still performing up to their contracts. That makes this offseason that much more important, as their window to contend with this core will not be open much longer.

Anthony Cacchione

Top Area of Need for Each NL Contender

With the All-Star Break upon us, more trades will begin to occur, so we now look at the top area of need for each NL contender. The top area of need for each AL contender will follow later.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Set-up Man/Closer

The Diamondbacks bullpen has been relatively strong this season with a 3.33 ERA, which ranks 6th in the NL. However, the Diamondbacks have had trouble late in games, especially when Heath Bell was the closer. The Diamondbacks have also blown the most saves in the MLB with 19 blown saves. Even though the Diamondbacks got their closer, JJ Putz, back from injury, they still need a late-inning reliever, as Putz is tied for the team lead with 5 BS’s. Unless the Mets make Bobby Parnell available, Kevin Gregg may be the best value of any late-inning relievers.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 2nd Base
The Dodgers have been hot of late and quickly climbed from the cellar of the NL West to being just 2.5 games back of the first place Diamondbacks. However, the Dodgers are still just a .500 team, and are 24th in the MLB in runs scored. One position really holding the Dodgers back is 2nd base, where their second basemen have slashed just .254/.315/.316. The best 2nd basemen that could be available is Chase Utley of the Phillies; however the Phillies have not yet decided whether to buy or sell, but are currently leaning towards buying.

Colorado Rockies: Starting Pitcher
The Rockies may choose not to buy, but the NL West is certainly up for grabs. Especially since the Rockies just got Tulowitzki back from the DL, they should consider acquiring a starting pitcher to help push them into the Postseason. The Rockies rotation ranks 12th in the NL in ERA with a 4.54 mark. It doesn’t seem that new addition Roy Oswalt will fulfill their expectations as he has pitched to a 7.64 ERA in his first 4 starts, and is now on the DL. If the Rockies are going to reach the playoffs, they must acquire another solid starter. While Matt Garza may be out of the Rockies’ price range, the Twins’ Kevin Correia may be more realistic.

St. Louis Cardinals: Shortstop
Shortstop has long been a position of need for the Cardinals, and this year is no different. They hoped that Pete Kozma would be able to step up this year and provide strong defense and adequate offense. Kozma has been able to provide value on the defensive side of the field, but his offense has not, as he has slashed just .232/.279/.293. The trade market for shortstops is pretty weak this season, which is why the Cardinals are hoping a platoon of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma can hold the lineup together. In the unlikely event that the Indians make Asdrubal Cabrera available, then the Cardinals could pursue him.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Right Fielder
The Pirates sit just 1 game behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, but most of that success is owed to the pitching staff, which leads the MLB in ERA. One position that could especially use an offensive upgrade is Right Field, where the starter, Travis Snider, has produced an underwhelming .224/.294/.332 slash line. One trade possibility is the White Sox’s Alex Rios, who is also under contract beyond this season.

Cincinnati Reds: Left Field
Ever since Ryan Ludwick landed on the DL after the first game of the season, the Reds have been looking for his replacement. Internal options have failed to solve the problem, with Chris Heisey struggling to stay healthy and few other internal options coming through for the Reds. If the Cubs are willing to deal Alfonso Soriano within their division, then he could be a fit for the Reds.

Atlanta Braves: Center Field
The Braves have no glaring need, except in Center Field, where free-agent signing, BJ Upton, has struggled mightily. The Braves may not want to bench or platoon BJ for an extended period of time, especially since he is in the first year of a 5 year, $75 Million deal. However, a .177/.266/.300 slash line is not enough production for a team looking for a playoff berth. Justin Ruggiano of the Miami Marlins may be a good fit, as he is cheap financially and the Marlins are clear sellers.

Washington Nationals: Starting Pitcher
The Nationals have struggled in many areas this season, but the one position they must improve is their 5th starter spot. The Nationals starters as a whole have been very good, but that is in large part due to the excellence of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez. However, they are receiving horrible production from their 5th starter, Dan Haren, who was signed to a one year, $13 Million deal this past off-season. Haren is currently on the DL for the 2nd time, but even when healthy, Haren has compiled a 4-10 record with a 6.00 ERA. The Houston Astros’s Bud Norris may be a good fit for the Nationals, especially because he is controllable beyond this season.

Philadelphia Phillies: Right Fielder
The Phillies are right on the border between buying and selling, and in my last post I saw them more as sellers, but they have been hot of late and are currently leaning towards buying. If they do choose to buy, then many have speculated that they must shore up their middle and setup relief pitching, but their biggest area of need is in Right Field. Phillies Right Fielders have accumulated the 29th ranked WAR at -0.6. Free agent acquisition Delmon Young has failed to fulfill expectations, as he has slashed .268/.323/.419 with just 7 home runs. The Phillies do not have the prospects to acquire someone like Alex Rios, but a reunion with Raul Ibanez could be a possibility.

Anthony Cacchione